fp Turks and Caicos

This question is lingers in the minds and murmurings of those have sought and heard the testimony of the Commission of Inquiry in Turks and Caicos. But if so, how?

There are only four ways for a sitting Premier to be removed:

a. He resigns
b. He loses a Vote-of-No-Confidence
c. He loses an Election
d. The British suspend the constitution

However, none of these options seem likely, immediately. The elections are two years off. And even if The Premier sought one, it would probably be denied by the Governor; outside the constitutional period.  It is doubtful that The Premier will resign. It seems against his style and given the circumstances, there is little  - note our emphasis - strategic incentive to do so. c. The Vote of No-Confidence can only come with a sitting of the House of Assembly.

But how likely is that?

There is constitutional precedent for a cabinet vote of No-Confidence, but that is a political move, more than a legal one. And in any event, it is those who vote against the sitting leader who resign in such a tactic.
It seems unlikely that the British will suspend the constitution – though, if pushed, they will have no choice. The reasons for their resistance is that they have just led the largest bank bailout in history and are not likely to want to be financially responsible for Turks and Caicos Islands.

In suspending the constitution, and taking over the administration of the country, the British will be faced with making choices, that is cuts in government spending, that are likely to have severe political impacts. Even a nation as powerful and sophisticated as Great Britain will find it distasteful to have to make such decisions without the assistance of local politicians. However, the populace in these islands, and everyone besides are likely to conclude that it is not the locals, but the British who are making the tough calls.

Altogether, the matter is a difficult one. If one views it from the results of the first week of the Commission of Inquiry, the British – as result of the Inquiry’s recommendations - may say they have enough to recommend either that The Premier is unfit for public office or has outraged the public morals. However, if that is the case, and even if they recommend an investigation for criminal wrongdoing, still, The Premier can retain his office, almost, if not exactly until elections are due in 2011.

As such the only means of The Premier’s withdrawal from his position is resignation or a Vote-of-No-Confidence. Ultimately, it is the response of the citizens of Turks and Caicos that must determine both, since on the Vote, the House of Assembly must convene, and that too is the Premier’s decision.